German Aluminium Foil Exports Fall 2.8% in H1 2026: France Gains, H2 Outlook Muted
Germany’s aluminium foil export recovery has stalled after two consecutive years of gradual improvement. Shipments slipped 2.8% year-on-year to 140,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, marking a break from the upward trajectory that followed the 2023 downturn, even as select European markets showed resilience.
Export Trend Reversal: Recovery Stalls
The sector had been on a slow rebound since an 8.6% drop in H1 2023, when exports fell to 138,000 tonnes. Volumes edged up 2.2% to 141,000 tonnes in H1 2024 and a further 2.1% to 144,000 tonnes in H1 2025, before the 2026 decline.
Quarterly trends show a mixed seasonal pattern. In 2026, exports rose 2.9% quarter-on-quarter from 69,000 tonnes in Q1 to 71,000 tonnes in Q2, but Q2 volumes still lagged the 72,000 tonnes recorded in the same period of 2025. This follows the softening trajectory seen in H2 2025, when shipments fell progressively from Q2 peaks to 65,000 tonnes by Q4.
Headwinds: Soft Demand, Rising Costs & Intensifying Competition
The H1 decline was driven by broad softening across core European markets, where subdued industrial activity, weaker packaging sector demand and cautious inventory management weighed on new orders. Demand for thin-gauge and standard foil in flexible packaging and household applications remained particularly sluggish.
German producers also faced intensifying competition from lower-cost global suppliers, eroding market share in price-sensitive segments. High domestic energy, labour and conversion costs further compressed competitiveness against regional peers and overseas alternatives, while softer demand outside Europe added to headwinds.
Top Export Markets: Diverging Performance
Export weakness was uneven across Germany’s major destinations, with France standing out as the only top-five market to post solid growth.
France overtook Switzerland as the single largest destination, with shipments rising 9.1% year-on-year to 24,000 tonnes in H1 2026. By contrast, exports to Switzerland fell 4.2% to 23,000 tonnes, slipping from the top spot it held a year earlier.
The Netherlands recorded the steepest decline, dropping 17.2% to 10,600 tonnes. Austria also saw a sharp fall, down 9.8% to 8,300 tonnes.
Shipments to the United States declined 3.9% to 9,900 tonnes overall, though the market showed signs of recovery: Q2 exports jumped 47.5% quarter-on-quarter to 5,900 tonnes after a weak start to the year.
H2 2026 Outlook: Further Mild Decline Expected
Germany’s aluminium foil exports are set to remain under pressure in the second half of 2026. If the seasonal pattern seen in 2025 repeats, shipments could fall to roughly 67,000 tonnes in Q3 and 64,000 tonnes in Q4.
This would put H2 exports at around 131,000 tonnes, bringing full-year 2026 volumes to approximately 271,000 tonnes — a mild annual decline rather than a return to growth.
