Morgan Stanley: Global Aluminium Market to See Surplus in 2027, Aluminium Price May Fall to $2,800/tonne
Sep 21 (Wire News) – Analysts at Morgan Stanley forecast that the global aluminium market will shift from tight supply to surplus, with aluminium prices facing downward pressure in 2027.
The investment bank estimates that the gradual restart of aluminium capacity in the Middle East, together with continuous commissioning of new capacity in Indonesia, will lift supply gains above modest demand growth, creating a global aluminium surplus of over 800,000 tonnes in 2027.
Current aluminium prices stand at around $3,200 per tonne, and are projected to retreat to $2,800/tonne in the second half of 2027, representing a drop of roughly 12.5%.
On the demand side, while energy transition and power grid construction offer support, consumption growth remains weak and cannot absorb the new supply.
That said, the downside for aluminium prices will be capped. Elevated production costs will curb high-cost capacity output. Meanwhile, high copper prices are likely to stimulate aluminium-for-copper substitution demand, providing some floor support for aluminium prices.
