Gulf Aluminium Output Collapses 40% Below Pre-War Levels Amid Deepening Global Supply Crisis

Meta Description: Gulf aluminium production fell 26.7% month-on-month in April 2026 to less than two-thirds of pre-conflict levels, per IAI data. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is driving a global supply shock, pushing LME aluminium prices to a four-year high.

LONDON — Preliminary data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) shows Gulf region aluminium output dropped to 10,989 tonnes per day in April 2026, a 26.7% decline from March’s 15,000 tonnes per day. Current production stands at less than two-thirds of the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 17,800 tonnes per day, with final April figures still being compiled.

Global Ripple Effects of the Gulf Supply Shock

The Gulf accounts for around 8% of global primary aluminium output, but its footprint in import markets is far larger. The region supplies roughly 19% of EU primary aluminium imports, 28% of Japanese imports and 21% of US imports, amplifying the impact of the production disruption far beyond its share of global capacity.

In 2025, Gulf producers shipped 860,500 metric tonnes of primary aluminium to the US alone. The EU sources nearly one in five tonnes of its imported primary aluminium from five GCC producers. Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey also have major exposure. The metal feeds directly into core industrial supply chains including automotive manufacturing, aerospace, construction, packaging and electrical infrastructure.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial shipping, finished metal remains stranded at smelters, unable to reach customers. Emirates Global Aluminium, the region’s largest producer, has confirmed export delays and warned it may draw on inventories held outside the region to meet contractual obligations.

IAI Warns Production Has Not Yet Hit Bottom

The production crisis dominated discussions at the recent CRU World Aluminium Summit in London, attended by industry leaders from 39 countries.

IAI Secretary General Jonathan Grant stated: “What we are seeing in April’s numbers is probably not the floor. It is a further deterioration that brings Gulf output to levels not seen in over a decade. The region’s smelters cannot replenish raw material stocks through the Strait of Hormuz and are trying alternate land routes to keep operating. That equation is now catching up with production in a very direct way.”

“Aluminium is essential to modern industrial economies, and with countries including the US, Japan and EU relying on Gulf smelters, this appears to be a slow-motion supply chain shock,” he added.

LME Prices Hit Four-Year High Amid Global Capacity Gap

LME aluminium prices have reached a four-year high as markets price in the tightening supply outlook. US Midwest aluminium premiums — already the highest in the world — have surged further since the conflict began, with European duty-unpaid premiums following suit.

With Gulf production now running roughly 38% below its pre-war daily rate, and no material compensating output increases emerging from other regions, the structural supply deficit is set to widen. China, which accounts for approximately 60% of global production, has posted only marginal output gains. No other producing region is positioned to absorb a disruption of this scale at speed.

The IAI expects to publish final April production figures for the Gulf region in the coming weeks. The International Aluminium Institute represents the world’s primary aluminium producers, accounting for roughly 60% of global output, with production data published on a monthly basis.